You need more rest i think…

Ugh, I liked!…

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From my observations, it takes roughly 10-14 months for a particular loan vintage to become seasoned. Therefore, using prosper’s current ROI calculations, the stated ROI’s for portfolios newer than 8-10 months are VASTLY overstated (because as I said before, the delinquency ratio is not linearly correlated with elapsed time, but Prosper’s calculations assume that it is).

This may be too fine a point, but I believe that this is extremely misleading to potential investors, and may be one cause of some structural inefficiencies in the Prosper system.

(do you ever wonder why, hardly any of the top ROI lenders have portfolios with average ages longer than 360 days? In fact, I believe the top lender with at least 50 loans, with a portfolio age longer than 360 days, has a ROI of 14.45%… )

It wouldn’t be that hard to fix. The portfolio performance should probably start at the aggregated “estimated ROI” shown when making a bid on the main Prosper site. Then you could take actual data and adjust that ROI through time, so that after a few years pass, the actual data dominates the final result.

I actually have a question…
Under what circumstances will Prosper actually transfer a loan into “default” from “delinquent”? This is important, because for tax purposes, I would like faster transfers into “default”. I’ll write them up later, if necessary, showing a gain. But this would defer my payable taxes and enhance my ROI.

On a similar vein, under what circumstances will Prosper sell the loan to a collections agency? Is it at 4 months delinquent, 6 months, etc? This is also important because fresher loans show much higher collection ratios than stale loans, and therefore garner much higher prices.

If I understand correctly, if a borrower lent 6K, has an active loan for 3K, and has a listing for another 3K, then you calculate the ratio to be 1 on “borrowers who lend” page. 6K / (3K + 3K) Do I have that right?

But if, for example, he’s paid off $2900 of that 3K active loan leaving a balance of $0.1K, then I submit that his lend-to-loan-ratio is actually 6K/ (0.1K + 3K) = 1.93.

(Regarding the “Total Loans Funded” I somehow simply got delinquent confused with defaulted. Sorry about that. I think the flatness of the delinquent line got me thinking the wrong way.)